Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 11.600222 13.027760 14.637825 16.603948 18.961650 21.725966 25.254308
2025-04-06 9.331554 11.023960 13.078773 15.804297 19.398920 24.090595 30.879384
2025-04-13 8.044724 9.809277 12.054684 15.200588 19.631647 25.883537 35.850032
2025-04-20 7.884971 9.937877 12.683757 16.768681 22.969174 32.567159 49.857974
2025-04-27 7.432426 9.596081 12.598712 17.274155 24.801728 37.378177 62.595480
2025-05-04 6.759725 8.867523 11.865380 16.680681 24.759299 39.022305 70.046992
2025-05-11 6.458744 8.629598 11.806662 17.101197 26.438908 44.105564 86.883086
2025-05-18 6.047416 8.188957 11.389750 16.872939 26.920733 47.000005 100.161610
2025-05-25 5.696089 7.806576 11.021547 16.670109 27.398194 49.994821 115.454577
2025-06-01 5.417271 7.511114 10.760190 16.612527 28.133664 53.751853 135.551901
2025-06-08 5.096432 7.127100 10.321673 16.184472 28.046881 55.567030 150.741736
2025-06-15 4.887126 6.903471 10.127246 16.177038 28.830810 59.773422 178.497812
2025-06-22 4.568771 6.498103 9.617086 15.561100 28.286238 60.600881 194.666349
2025-06-29 4.257654 6.088108 9.073047 14.831300 27.390002 60.276272 206.014203
2025-07-06 4.003805 5.757007 8.641921 14.278663 26.816457 60.749871 222.600909
2025-07-13 4.083101 5.975893 9.182149 15.712436 31.219824 78.259808 374.505381
2025-07-20 4.007980 5.929900 9.244330 16.173561 33.339056 89.598640 528.550448
2025-07-27 3.801339 5.648218 8.855863 15.632106 32.708722 90.511435 587.304538
2025-08-03 3.731537 5.597844 8.891350 16.015835 34.693943 102.942855 856.503783
2025-08-10 3.592012 5.418472 8.671681 15.807588 34.962056 108.326262 1070.159393
2025-08-17 3.464828 5.254561 8.471024 15.622454 35.269413 114.179444 1364.820102
2025-08-24 3.361449 5.127780 8.333722 15.569881 35.976359 122.563130 1874.844127
2025-08-31 3.226261 4.938219 8.063270 15.178855 35.556027 124.918787 2252.473102